Which AFC Division Winner Future Offers the Best Value?
AFC East
Bills +1200
Dolphins +800
Patriots -400
Jets +500
The Patriots are the big favorites here, but there is little to no value in taking them at 4-1 favorites. The Bills offer value over the Dolphins if you are looking for a longshot, but if you are realistic then you will soon realize neither is coming out on top. That leaves the Jets, who come along with a qb controversy to boot, and I feel they probably offer the best value in this division. That said, I am not even thinking about betting them.
Best Values: Jets +500
Bets I Placed: None
AFC North
Ravens +120
Steelers +140
Bengals +375
Browns +2000
The Browns really don’t have much of a chance to come out on top here, so I think we can safely go ahead and discard them. That is when things get interesting. Baltimore lost star Terrell Suggs for most of the year but drafted well and should be able to get by without him. At +120, I do not see much value in taking them though. The Steelers would seem to be the obvious choice, but after a quick glance at their schedule you will see they are playing one of the toughest. The Bengals, however, are playing a weak early-season schedule that includes Cleveland (week 2 and 6), Washington (week 3), Jacksonville (week 4), and Miami (week 5). I think they take the division outright.
Best Values: Bengals +375
Bets I placed: Bengals +375
AFC South
Texans -650
Colts +1500
Jaguars +1500
Titans +500
After years of trying to get over the hump, the Texans won the division last year and are biggest favorites to win their respective division. The Texans will win this division, but it is very hard to lay that kind of a price in a game where injuries occur so frequently. But we did see that they have a very capable back-up qb as well, and it just seems very, very unlikely they even come close to losing this division. The Jaguars and Colts are rebuilding and have no shot, while Tennessee will be lucky to not start the season 0-4. The Texans will win the division but is it worth the price? No.
Best Values: None
Bets I Placed: None
AFC West
Broncos +180
Chiefs +450
Raiders +600
Chargers +140
In the most up-for-grabs division in football, the Chargers are the small favorites. For those of you familiar with Norv Turner, you know you should almost always stay away from placing bets on his team. He has a tendency to get the least effort out of his players almost every week until it gets very late in the year. This year is no different. I also doubt the Raiders and Carson Palmer are going to play at a high enough level to win this division. Their lack of draft picks also has us wonder about their depth. The Chiefs look like they do offer some value because they added a lot of talent through the draft. After a quick glance at their schedule, they could very well be bouncing around the .500 mark all year long. I don’t see them being very far from the front of this division when all is said and done. I have the Broncos and Peyton Manning winning the division, however. I think he will carry this team to a 10 win season and will be back to his usual self. Their schedule looks like it will be difficult at times, but I think in the end Peyton will make a big enough difference to win this very mediocre division.
Best Values: Broncos +180, Chiefs +450
Bets I Placed: Broncos +180
by Rance Young
Follow Me on Twitter @behindthebets
