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BTB Podcast #2 – Rants by Rance

Answering a few questions and ranting about the betting industry (accidentally cut the last 30 secs out)

BTB Podcasts

Here is the first BTB Podcast. I answer questions about betting, the NBA, and entertainment. Plus I ramble about betting for a bit.

CBB Systems


I tried to create a podcast with this information yesterday, but the software I have always used is not working on my new laptop. I would like to do a bi-weekly podcast for the site, so if anyone has any good advice about creating one please let me know. I have a brand new computer and all of the audio working. I just need to know the best recording/editing software to use.

I will be doing an NBA page similar to this as well. I am simply providing my favorite CBB/NBA systems (and will refer to them as CBB System 1, CBB System 2, etc). When I release the system plays I will put the number of the system that correlates to this page. Stability over time (or a large amount of plays) is the most important factor in determining how a system will do. I have systems that span 100′s of play and 1,000′s of plays over the last 10 years. I have the info updated weekly in Excel format and also have access to the brilliant BetLabs for instant system creation.

I will also be offering a free service for members who want to know how great any system you can think of is. Simply shoot me a tweet or email with the criteria, and I will get back to you within 48 hours with the results. I will compose a different post later with all of the criteria you can pick from. The basic stats below are not system stats, but they are helpful in seeing that you must go beyond the surface to get any meaningful results. Visitors, as a general rule, are better bets in CBB and NBA and offer more value. Being a visitor is never a good enough reason to bet a team though.

I am unit betting the rest of the season in CBB and NBA. The amount of units depends on the stability of the system over X amount of plays. I will give you the stability of the system by giving each one a grade (A+, A-, B+, B-). No systems in the C, D, or F range are worthy of following. I can give more info on this in a couple of days.

Some basic stats:

CBB Visitors L10 Years: 14774-14140 ROI: -0.3%
CBB Visitors This Season: 1260-1202 ROI: -0.5%
CBB Home Teams L10 Years: 14140-14774 ROI: -4.7%
CBB Home Teams This Season: 1202-1260 ROI: -5.1%
CBB Dogs L10 Years: 15317-15203 ROI: -2.1%
CBB Dogs This Season: 1369-1406 ROI: -3.9%
CBB Favs L10 Years: 15203-15317 ROI: -3.0%
CBB Favs This Season: 1406-1369 ROI: -1.7%
CBB Road Dogs L10 Years: 10844-10482 ROI: -0.8%
CBB Road Dogs This Season: 930-920 ROI: -2.1%
CBB Road Favs L10 Years: 3928-3651 ROI: +0.9%
CBB Road Favs This Season: 330-282 ROI: +4.3%
CBB Home Dogs L10 Years: 3651-3928 ROI: -6.1%
CBB Home Dogs This Season: 282-330 ROI: -10.2%
CBB Home Favs L10 Years: 10482-10844 ROI: -4.3%
CBB Home Favs This season: 920-930 ROI: -3.4%

Now for my favorite systems:

CBB System 7
CBB System 8
CBB System 9
CBB System 10

The Single Most Important Factor in Becoming a Pro Bettor


I have been preaching about money management for years. I have claimed that it is the most important factor that will ultimately lead to you winning money in this business. There is one thing that is even more fundamental, however, and is the true basis for success in any area of life: ATTITUDE!

We all know the typical hater. Some of you experience them in your social life or maybe at work. They are naturally negative and seemingly have “VICTIM” written across their forehead. They also exist online (I have a good bit of them myself), and they spend much of their valuable time focusing on bashing others instead of bettering themselves (by breaking down games or having valuable online discussions).

I have encountered almost every type of negative online character out there. There are those that bash you outright (“Your play suck!”), others that try to do so a little under the radar (“You haven’t won since I jumped on board, but I am sure you will turn it around soon!”), and others that seem to be natural pessimists (“Who is making these plays? I don’t understand what you are seeing. Confusing!”). People that make these comments will never win in the betting world, which is why I ignore them completely and move on. Quite simply, negative people are the losers in life and in gambling.

In my experience, winning bettors seem to have one common thread: they are natural optimists who never play the victim card. You won’t see many winning bettors complaining about a bad beat here or a bad beat there. You won’t see them ragging someone online over plays or ranting and raving over a bad run. Losses are a necessary evil in this line of business. You either learn from them or you let them eat you up until you lack the wherewithal to keep grinding each and every day.

Stay focused on winning long term and understand each second you spend in a state of self-loathing is a very valuable second you could have used crunching numbers and breaking down games.


NFL Live Betting

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Breaking Down NFL Margins of Victory

What does Margin of Victory Mean?
The difference between the number of points scored by the winning team and the number of points scored by the losing team.

The Favorite Will Win! Not always.
Often at BTB, we will buy the hook (the .5 points on the spread in NFL and CFB) in order to get that extra leverage on a 3 pt spread. Here we will explain why we do this. A win is a win. However, to us at BTB and all other sports bettors, a single POINT difference in the margin of victory will decide if we cover our spread and win the bet, or lose. We won’t even get into the meaningless field goal or touchdown at the end of the game that throws off the spread and turns into a loss. Maybe I will write an “I Hate Meaningless Points” blog later on. Anyways, before I reminisce over those bets and start crying…how often in the NFL does the final winning margin fall on 3 or 7? Pretty common. The most frequent win margin in the NFL is 3 points, followed by 7 points. We also often fade the point spread favorite (meaning we take the underdog) in the NFL, unless it is the right spot to take the favorite.

Being a computer genius, I did some research:
• 45.55% of NFL regular season games were decided by 7 points or less.
• 22.25% of NFL regular season games were decided by 3 points or less.

So at first glance, the regular Joe bettor would think that those numbers would make you wants to bet the favorite considering 54.45% of games are decided by 7 points or more because “the better team always wins”. Wrong. Ever heard of an upset? Underdogs will win approximately 50% of the games over the course of most regular NFL seasons. Let me break this down a little further for you guys.

Further Breaking Down NFL Margins of Victory:
2002 – 2012 NFL Seasons:
• 1st most common margin of victory (NFL): 3 pts. (15.24%)
• 2nd most common margin of victory (NFL): 7 pts. (9.69%)
• 3rd most common margin of victory (NFL): 10 pts. (6.14%)

What a surprise! Now let’s get really into it and think why it is 3, 7, 10 points. Umm, field goal, touchdown, field goal plus a touchdown! I hope I didn’t lose you there…complex math and analysis.

Some more quick facts:
• 50.13% of games end with a margin of less than 10 points (9 pts. or less).
• 63.19% of games end with a margin of less than 14 (13 pts. or less).

Because some of you guys are visual learners, and I am awesome at excel, and BTB is all about spreadsheets, here are some percentages of margins of victory since the start of the 2002 season. This is the kind of thing you will probably send to all your friends (or you should at least).


Margin of Victory Frequency
1 pt 3.49%
2 pts 3.52%
3 pts 15.24%
4 pts 5.20%
5 pts 2.90%
6 pts 5.51%
7 pts 9.69%
8 pts 3.19%
9 pts 1.39%
10 pts 6.14%
11 pts 2.29%
12 pts 1.44%
13 pts 3.19%
14 pts 4.78%
15 + pts 32.03%

Thanks for reading,
– BTB Dave

The 3 Best Sports Betting Tips

The 3 Best Sports Betting Tips


People that win money consistently betting sports will tell you the most important thing they look for is value. Sharps, as they are known, are the ones that can consistently find these winners over and over based on power ranks, trends, situations, or formulas. Regardless of the means, we all are simply looking for the best way to determine the value of any bet so that we win money over time. It is no different than a Wall Street trader looking for a stock that is under-priced now in hopes of making a profit down the road. Here are 3 tips to help you find value, get the best of numbers, and understand middling key numbers.

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Understanding Line Movements in Sports Betting

 Understanding Line Movements in Sports Betting


The first step in learning to beat the books is to focus on understanding how lines are set and why they move. Lines are nothing but different prices in a stock market that we call sports betting. If you can get a line at -2.5 instead of -3 while laying the same amount, then you are getting a better deal in our market. If you keep getting these better prices, then that will lead to more extracted value at the end of each year. Getting value is the name of the game. If two teams are evenly matched in every facet of the game, but because of some external factors (excessive media attention, star players being profiled on Sports Center, etc.) one team is favored by 6 points then you are getting value by going against them in this particular game. Public perception creates media frenzy around a team; the frenzy inspires your average Joe to place a wager online; and the line adjusts to the influx of money coming in on that team.

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Sharps vs Squares

Sharps vs Squares


Here is a typical conversation I have with up-and-coming sport’s bettors.

Bettor – “Which side is the sharp side of game x and which side is the square side?”

Me – “Well, what number did you get the game at?”

Bettor – “I got it at minus 3. But I just want to know what side the public was on and which side the sharps were on.”

Me – “Well, this game, like most games, really did not have a public or a sharp side. The sharps that I know who decided to bet the game just got the game at -2.5 or bet the other side at +3.5.”

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Should You Fade the Public When Sports Betting?

 Should you Fade the Public when Sports Betting?


You will hear a lot of people argue that you should always fade (or bet against) the public. Others argue that you should bet with the public because the public is usually right. I argue for a different approach to sports betting altogether. I want you to understand a few things first though. The public does affect lines and totals in games. Most casual gamblers get their information from ESPN and sports radio, who are in the business of over-hyping players and games every day. Therefore most people who place a bet are likely to bet the favorite (the popular team in the media who have been on SportsCenter all week) or the over in the game (because they have heard about the high-powered offensive players all week). If we had perfect information about both teams then the public would usually be right, but we have very imperfect information that doesn’t accurately reflect what is going to happen in any particular game.

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How to Breakdown a Game from a Betting Perspective

How to Breakdown a Game from a Betting Perspective


I am going to give you some tips on how to breakdown a game with an example of a game from tonight’s card. I will give you a few free places to look for ATS stats as well. Let’s get started.

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Tips for Betting the NBA and NCAA

Tips for Betting the NBA and NCAA


1) Don’t worry if your bet is sharp – Quit worrying about the sharp side of a game and/or fading the public. There is not a sharp/square side to every single game, nor should it really matter what side they are on (the sharp number could easily be gone). A lot of times the sharp side is the public side, but the sharps may have just gotten the number ahead of the majority of the public. Instead try to make solid bets over and over again, and focus on knowing as much as you can about the teams who are playing the game.

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Are Teasers for Suckers? How to Bet NFL Teasers.


Are Teasers for Suckers? How to Bet NFL Teasers


A teaser is a bet that allows you to adjust the point spread in the direction you want on 2 or more games. The key is that you have to hit them all. In football, the most common teaser is 2-team 6. So if you love the Falcons +4.5 and the Bears -8.5 this week, then you can simply adjust the spreads to Falcons +10.5 and Bears -2.5. There are also 2-team 6.5’s, 2-team 7’s, 3-team 6’s, 3-team 10’s, 3-team 14’s, and so on. If you want to win though, you need to focus only on 2-team 6 (or 6.5’s).

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How to Bet Totals

 How to Bet Totals


Betting totals is one of the easiest ways to make money each week in the NFL and college. What exactly is a total? It is simply the line for how many combined points both teams will score in any given game. The line is not set with an attempt to get equal action on both sides of the line: it is set with an attempt to make money off the gullible public. This concept actually took me the longest time to understand. Forever I blindly assumed the books wanted equal action so as to make money off the vig (the -110 you make for every bet). The books actually want that money plus the extra 10-20% that the public will make them after they push the line up or down depending on the game. If the Packers-Eagles are playing and the total is determined to be 50.5, then the books will probably push that total up to 53 or so simply because the public will bet the over in the game no matter what. 80% of the bets will come in on the inflated over and the book will have an edge over all of those bets. Similarly, if the Ravens-Steelers are playing then the books will probably give a deflated number like 37.5 (as opposed to more accurate number like 40) because of the public perception that the game will be a defensive battle. In the long run, these extra points become extra money for the books.

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Soccer Plays for 3-7, 3-8, and 3-9-13


Tottenham to advance -160 Won

Chelsea/Steaua Bucuresti draw +230 Loss



AC Milan/Genoa under 2.5 (-125) Won



Queens Park Rangers/Sunderland under 2.5 Loss

West Bram Albion/Swansea City over 2.5 Won

West Brom Albion +135 Won

Everton -1 (-150) Loss


4-3 and +0.75 units 

23-14-1 and +8.53 units on the year

Tennis Plays for 2-7-13

Devarrmen +3.5 Won

Chardy -6 Loss

Chardy Live -200 Won

Chardy/Garin under 19 Loss 

Gasquet -2 Push

Petzschner +140 Cancelled


2-2-1 and -0.2 units on the day

8-4-1 and +6.9 units on the year

People You Should Follow on Twitter!


There are a lot of stupid people on Twitter. I am certain of that. Here is a group of people on the other end of the spectrum. All are must-follows! (If I misspelled anything or made any other mistakes let me know)

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Which AFC Division Winner Future Offers the Best Value?

Which AFC Division Winner Future Offers the Best Value?


AFC East

Bills +1200

Dolphins +800

Patriots -400

Jets +500

The Patriots are the big favorites here, but there is little to no value in taking them at 4-1 favorites. The Bills offer value over the Dolphins if you are looking for a longshot, but if you are realistic then you will soon realize neither is coming out on top. That leaves the Jets, who come along with a qb controversy to boot, and I feel they probably offer the best value in this division. That said, I am not even thinking about betting them.

Best Values: Jets +500

Bets I Placed: None

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Which NFC Division Winner Future Offers the Best Value?

Which NFC Division Winner Future Offers the Best Value?

NFC East

Cowboys +200

Giants +200

Eagles +140

Redskins +1200

There is no sense in getting crazy and betting the Redskins here. I love RG3 as much as the next guy, but they have no realistic shot in winning this division. The Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles all are going to get their fair share of attention, but I do not think any team really offers much value. I faded the Eagles last year in many spots but feel they are probably the best bet in this division this year. They addressed defense in the draft (their glaring weakness last year) and usually teams take a year to really start to gel.

Best Values: Eagles +140

Bets I Placed: None

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